Week in Review: July 19, 2024 - with Robert Cruickshank

Community-Focused Approach: Tariq Yusuf's Plan for Seattle's Future from Hacks & Wonks

Alexis Mercedes Rinck Outlines Progressive Vision for Seattle City Council from Hacks & Wonks

Grassroots to City Hall: Sanchez's Progressive Agenda for Seattle Council from Hacks & Wonks

“Interim Police Chief Sue Rahr Fires Officer Who Joked About Death of 23-Year-Old Pedestrian” by Erica C. Barnett from PubliCola

“The Stranger’s Endorsements for the August, 6, 2024 Primary Election” by Stranger Election Control Board

“2024 Primary Election Endorsements” by The Urbanist Elections Committee

“Bob Ferguson has single-digit lead over Dave Reichert in new WA Poll” by Claire Withycombe from The Seattle Times

“Biden’s response to war in Gaza leaves many WA voters unmoved, poll shows” by Lauren Girgis from The Seattle Times

“Trump felony conviction sways very few voters, WA poll shows” by Alexandra Yoon-Hendricks and Jim Brunner from The Seattle Times

“Realtor PAC Spends $60,000 on Council Member Tanya Woo’s Campaign” by Hannah Krieg from The Stranger

@AlyciaRamirez3 on Twitter/X: “Very interesting... it looks like there's Reddit chatbots that have been programmed to shill for Andrea Suarez & Tanya Woo's campaign.”

“Seattle's accessory dwelling unit boom continues, outnumbering single-family permits 2 to 1” by Dyer Oxley from KUOW

Find stories that Crystal is reading here

Listen on your favorite podcast app to all our episodes here

[00:00:00] Crystal Fincher: Welcome to Hacks & Wonks. I'm Crystal Fincher, and I'm a political consultant and your host. On this show, we talk with policy wonks and political hacks to gather insight into local politics and policy in Washington state through the lens of those doing the work with behind-the-scenes perspectives on what's happening, why it's happening, and what you can do about it. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast to get the full versions of our Tuesday topical show and Friday week-in-review delivered to your podcast feed. If you like us, the most helpful thing you can do is leave a review wherever you listen to Hacks & Wonks. Full transcripts and resources referenced in the show are always available at officialhacksandwonks.com and in our episode notes.

If you missed our Tuesday topical show, Tariq Yusuf joined me for an in-depth interview to discuss his campaign for Seattle City Council. Our interviews with the other two challengers for that seat, Alexis Mercedes Rinck and Saunatina Sanchez, are also available. Today, we're continuing our Friday week-in-review shows where we review the news of the week with a co-host. Welcome back to the program, friend of the show and today's co-host: board member of Sierra Club Seattle, longtime communications and political strategist, Robert Cruickshank. Welcome back.

[00:01:28] Robert Cruickshank: Thanks for having me back, Crystal.

[00:01:30] Crystal Fincher: Well, we got big news this week from the Seattle Police Department - an action taken by Interim Police Chief Sue Rahr, who fired the officer who joked about the death of the 23-year-old pedestrian at the hands of another officer - Officer Auderer was fired. How did this come about?

[00:01:53] Robert Cruickshank: Well, this is the officer who is a Vice President of SPOG, Daniel Auderer. And after another officer named Kevin Dave struck and killed the woman crossing the street - driving 74 miles an hour - Auderer was talking to SPOG President Mike Solan and made comments minimizing the incident and dismissing Jaahnavi Kandula and her life, joking that her life had "limited value," basically laughing at it. No, a regular person, just write a check - her life didn't have much value. And this is recorded because he was on camera driving his patrol vehicle. And there was a huge outcry, rightly so, when these comments came to light. This is a - not just officer, but a officer of the union, as well as an officer of Seattle Police Department. And this went international - there were not just articles about it here locally and across the United States, but articles in Europe and Australian papers - just talked about how horrific these comments were. And so I think that Sue Rahr did absolutely the right thing in firing him. What's notable is that the officer who actually struck and killed the woman in the crosswalk, Kevin Dave - he's still on the force, but Sue Rahr has said she's still weighing what to do in that case, and she's trying to gather all the facts - is the comment she gave. This certainly suggests to me that if they're going to fire an officer for joking about a woman being killed by another officer, they should fire the officer who actually killed her. And I think that should create a public expectation that that is the outcome with Kevin Dave - that he should certainly get at minimum the same consequences that Daniel Auderer did, which is losing his job on the force. We'll see what happens with that in the coming weeks and what Sue Rahr decides to do.

[00:03:35] Crystal Fincher: We will see what happens. And especially with Officer Dave, this was certainly such a troubling incident on its own that to many people clearly justifies dismissal on its own. But he comes with a long history of very concerning incidents from when he was employed with the Tucson Police Department. So much so, in fact, that the Tucson Police Department called SPD to make sure they were aware of these issues before making a hiring decision. Seattle decided to hire this officer anyway, but these were so concerning to the Tucson Police Department that he was no longer employed there, tried to warn others - lo and behold, he winds up in this position and winds up killing a pedestrian with what a lot of people consider to be questionable and dangerous driving on the streets. I believe he was going over 70 miles per hour without lights and sirens, perhaps, as this woman was struck in a crosswalk - just minding her business, crossing the street, not expecting a dramatically speeding vehicle to be coming at her. So as you said, this was an international incident. We're waiting to see what happens with Officer Dave. We will certainly be staying tuned to what happens from here.

Also want to talk this week about major news here locally - ballots have been mailed for the primary election here in Washington state. And we have gotten a host of endorsements from The Seattle Times, The Stranger, The Urbanist - certainly influential endorsing entities. What did they have to say?

[00:05:20] Robert Cruickshank: So I think the big news this week in terms of all the endorsements that have come out is seeing progressive Seattle unite behind Alexis Mercedes Rinck for the City Council seat. Obviously, Tonya Woo got appointed to that citywide seat at the beginning of the year in very controversial circumstances, where basically corporations, corporate donors, Tim Ceis - who's a lobbyist for the big corporations - essentially told the City Council they needed to pick Woo. Woo's running for that seat. Woo is unpopular - a poll done by the Northwest Progressive Institute back in the spring showed that more voters disapprove of her than approve. But the question is - who would people pick to be the candidate going up against Tanya Woo? And I know that you've had these other candidates on - you mentioned Tariq, you mentioned Saunatina - and they're running great campaigns too, and good candidates. But what we're seeing is unions uniting behind Alexis Mercedes Rinck, Democratic organizations - the legislative districts - all endorsing Alexis Mercedes Rinck. And now both The Stranger and The Urbanist, two of the more influential endorsers in Seattle politics, have also endorsed Alexis Mercedes Rinck, pointing out that she has not just a better chance of winning, but also a strong background in policy, good ideas and good policies that she would want to champion on the City Council. So this seems like a very significant set of developments - to me - where unions are behind her, Democrats are behind her, progressive endorsers are behind Alexis.

And so it seemed to me likely that coming out of the August primary, you would now expect to see Alexis Mercedes Rinck versus Tanya Woo and Alexis having a fairly unified 40% of the electorate perhaps behind her - it's not saying that that's what she's going to get in the primary. But typically you assume that of the overall Seattle electorate, especially in an even year, at least 40% of them are going to be pretty reliably progressive. Another 35% to 40% are centrists or maybe even leaning towards the right - it's a larger number than people realize in Seattle, but they are there. And then they're going to compete over the 20 or so percent in the middle. And this being an even year, where you can expect high turnout in the November election, Alexis Mercedes Rinck has a very big head of steam behind her campaign. And I think assuming she comes out as one of the top two in the primary along with Tanya Woo, would be in a very good position to win this seat, especially with a coalescing of organizations and endorsers behind her.

[00:07:39] Crystal Fincher: What did we see in terms of endorsements for the statewide races?

[00:07:44] Robert Cruickshank: One of the most interesting statewide races is for Attorney General. And you have two really strong Democrats, two fairly progressive Democrats - Nick Brown, who's U.S. attorney for Western Washington, and you have Manka Dhingra, who's in the State Senate and had in the past been in the King County Prosecutor's Office. And they're both running strong campaigns, competing for endorsements, both have gotten a lot of endorsements around the state - but both The Stranger and The Urbanist went with Nick Brown - as did The Seattle Times, in fact. And seeing that convergence is really fascinating that the more centrist Times liked Nick Brown's experience. The Stranger and Urbanist, who are also more progressive, like Nick Brown's experience, like that Brown brought a lot of knowledge to the campaign and skills to the campaign, and pledging to continue the work Bob Ferguson has done in office, especially around keeping corporations liable. I think that this is really strong for Nick, especially in a field against another Democrat. And if Nick were to get a lot of votes in Seattle - you can expect Manka Dhingra to get a fair amount of votes on the east side of Lake Washington, where she represents - it could be a real boost for Nick.

We'll see what happens coming out of the primary - but one thing that stands out to me here is Nick Brown has actually, I think, run one of the better, stronger campaigns this cycle statewide. He's hustling hard. He's got a clear message. I do digital work and so I often do email campaigns that land in people's inboxes asking you to donate to a candidate or take some sort of action, sign a petition, or send a message to your legislator. And Nick's emails are consistently good. They're full of content. It's not empty - give me money now. It's - Yeah, I'm asking for money, but here's why. He's telling you a story. He's giving you a real update on the campaign. I've been really impressed by how he does that - it's not the usual spam that lands in your inbox. In contrast, I think Manka Dhingra, who I really like and I think has done a good job in the Legislature, I worry a bit that what's happened to Manka Dhingra is something that happens to a lot of good people who go to Olympia to serve in the Legislature - they pick up bad habits. The Democratic majority in Olympia is not great at cultivating the public base. They're not great at reading where the public is at. They don't run really great campaigns. And I think Manka Dhingra is bringing some of that to this statewide campaign against a really strong campaigner in Nick Brown. So I think it's going to be very interesting to see what voters decide in early August when the ballots all come in. But Nick - the fact that he's got The Stranger, The Urbanist, The Seattle Times, that's across the Seattle political spectrum at least, is a testament to the strength of the campaign he's run.

[00:10:22] Crystal Fincher: I also, just as a campaign professional, think that he is running one of the standout campaigns in the state, perhaps in the country - just hitting the marks on every metric. He is shining and the campaign is shining. I think that is notable and people should be paying attention to how that campaign is running - there's a lot that can be learned from that. I think we may differ on assessments of the party overall, on how Democrats run campaigns. I think a lot of it has to do with the candidate. I've seen some excellent campaigns and some not so great, but I think a lot of that is really individual. I don't know that I would paint it with a broad brush, but I've certainly seen some that have inspired me, in that way.

I do think it is notable on a number of metrics that there is not universal agreement on most of the races, even the statewide races. We see in the Seattle area certainly differences between The Times, Stranger, and Urbanist on the Commissioner for Public Lands race, on the Superintendent of Public Instruction race. Looking at different metrics there, I actually think it's a healthy thing to have contested and competitive primaries. I think candidates come out on the other side of that stronger - they're tested, they're able to learn, they're pushed to get out and talk to people. Talked many times how helpful and important it is for candidates to be really plugged in with the public, talking to as many regular people, non-donors, non-insiders, just people on their doorsteps, people in communities as they can. And I think that's been helpful. I think we've seen each of these candidates get stronger as time has progressed, and we can probably anticipate seeing that we have what look like maybe some really competitive races. I'm thinking principally of the Commissioner for Public Lands race, where you have a race with a few Democrats - Kevin Van De Wege, Patrick DePoe, Dave Upthegrove - competing for the Democratic and progressive vote. While Jaime Herrera Beutler is sitting there on the other side with - it looks like she has unified what is frequently fractured Republican support - she's boasting Joe Kent as an endorser who notoriously knocked her out of a Congressional primary in a very contentious race. So going to be really interesting to see what may shape up to be a very competitive general election battle. And those endorsements ran the gamut - The Seattle Times and The Urbanist endorsed Patrick DePoe with The Stranger endorsing Dave Upthegrove. So going to be really interesting to see where that's at. These endorsements play an outsized role in Democratic politics in the state because of how many Democrats are based in King County - it's the Democratic engine of the state. You need to win King County if you're going to win the state, almost assuredly, as a Democrat. And so these are really consequential.

Was there any news on the Congressional front in terms of endorsements?

[00:13:34] Robert Cruickshank: So The Stranger endorsed the challenger to Adam Smith, Melissa Chaudhry, who's running on a pro-Palestinian, anti-Gaza war, ceasefire platform there in the 9th District. And so I thought that was notable. Not surprising to me, but notable. They also endorsed Imraan Siddiqi, who's running against Kim Schrier over on the Eastside. And Siddiqi is also running similar campaign - pro-Palestinian, pro-ceasefire, anti-Gaza war. The Urbanist, of course, backed Siddiqi as well. It's going to be interesting to me to see what kind of influence those more Seattle-based endorsers have in a district that straddles the Cascade Mountains and goes into the Eastside, foothill suburbs - not really that deep into I-5 corridor territory. But it is notable that there is a desire among a lot of the more progressive endorsers to really challenge some of the moderate Democrats who are representing parts of Washington state over the issue of the Gaza war.

[00:14:35] Crystal Fincher: Yeah, I think you're exactly right on that one. It is going to be interesting to see. I think this may be one where The Times, certainly - The Stranger has had less influence there. Once you get outside of Seattle, that's not The Stranger's targeted audience or effective audience. So that is a little bit different there - that's a district that is not a Seattle-centric district, so we'll see how that turns out. But it is news that there is a credible challenger. They're in the primary in that race, and it will be interesting to see even if that doesn't turn out to be a successful race, how that potentially pushes or influences Kim Schrier in that seat.

Also want to talk about, particularly, the 43rd Legislative District in Seattle. How did endorsements turn out there?

[00:15:27] Robert Cruickshank: Yeah, we've got some interesting primaries happening within the Democratic Party for State Legislature, including right here in Seattle. Frank Chopp retiring opens up the 43rd. Shaun Scott, who notably ran for City Council in 2019 and very nearly beat Alex Pedersen, is now running for Frank Chopp's seat. He has Frank Chopp's endorsement. And Shaun Scott has the endorsement of both The Stranger and The Urbanist - he's written extensively for both publications. And Shaun Scott has a great deal of community support and progressive support. Those endorsements for Scott are not surprising. So I think a lot of people were wondering - Well, what's The Seattle Times going to do? Because Scott's main opponent is Andrea Suarez, who runs We Heart Seattle, which is a very right-wing anti-homeless organization. And when I say anti-homeless, they're very much about - we want to push, sweep homeless people off the streets. We don't care what happens. We want to do more punitive things. They say it's compassionate, but the reality is it's a very right-wing organization. And Andrea Suarez herself says she's a Democrat, but in Washington State, you can put whatever party name you want to on the ballot - there's no real rules around that. And Andrea Suarez has in fact been speaking at Republican conventions, Republican party meetings, hanging out with Republican candidates. For all intents and purposes, she looks and sounds like a Republican. And so the question was - Well, would The Seattle Times endorse her in order to try to stop Shaun Scott? The answer is no. The Seattle Times endorsed a third candidate, Daniel Carusello, this week. Daniel's a young man who grew up in Florida and moved to Seattle about five years ago to work at a tech company. He did intern for the Washington State Republican Party in the summer of 2017. His only political donation so far was $40 to Jinyoung England, who was the Republican candidate in the State Senate race in 2017 against Manka Dhingra. That was a race - when Manka won, she flipped control of the Washington State Senate back to Democrats. So it's interesting to see that The Times wouldn't go for Suarez or Scott - I don't know how much weight The Seattle Times endorsement carries in the 43rd district, which is one of the most left wing districts in the entire state. Suarez has a strong base of support around the city. But again, I don't know how strong it really is in the 43rd. So this is going to be a very interesting race to watch here in Seattle. Shaun Scott, I think, is going to sail through the primary, maybe even come in first. But the race to see who challenges Scott in the fall - Suarez or Carusello - is going to be very interesting to see as kind of a bellwether for the more center right of Seattle and where they want to go.

[00:18:02] Crystal Fincher: Absolutely. And your point is well taken that people can self-identify as whatever party they want. It really is telling to see where the local party organization, the local Democratic organization endorsements go - that is the real signifier of who the party feels is best representative of it on a local level. Local party organizations can be very different from the national party, so if you're turned off by the national element, please get plugged into your local party organizations because they oftentimes are frequently different and sometimes experiencing the same feelings that you may be. But really interesting to see there. Were there any other races legislatively that you thought were interesting?

[00:18:46] Robert Cruickshank: Yeah, there are two happening on the Eastside that I think are pretty important. One is in the 5th Legislative District. Mark Mullet, the senator there, is running for governor - he's going to lose, we'll talk about that in a moment - and so he's vacating his Senate seat. Bill Ramos is going to move up from the State House to the State Senate, and Bill Ramos' House seat is open. And there are two really good candidates over there. One is Victoria Hunt, who's on the Issaquah City Council and got The Stranger endorsement this week. But The Urbanist backed Kristiana de Leon, who is on the Black Diamond City Council. And Kristiana is running a very strong campaign centering fully funding public schools - she has a WEA endorsement, got a strong endorsement from The Urbanist for wanting to support walkable, affordable neighborhoods in places like Black Diamond. And you want someone who comes from the suburbs to be able to go to Olympia and champion those things. So that's a very interesting open seat.

Further north on the Eastside in the 45th District, a progressive Democrat is challenging an incumbent corporate Democrat. Larry Springer has represented the 45th District in the State House for quite a long time - he's very close to Microsoft and big business, he's a strong supporter of charter schools and privatizing public education. And he's being challenged by union organizer Melissa Demyan, who is racking up labor endorsements. And Melissa now has endorsement from The Stranger and The Urbanist as well. And so those are a big set of backing for a candidate taking on a well-funded incumbent, in the case of Larry Springer, but a very corporate Democrat. And Melissa's running a super strong campaign. They both are going to go through the primaries, just the two of them - so they'll face off again in the fall. These three races - the 43rd, the 45th, and the 5th - are going to be very interesting bellwethers to see where King County Democrats want to go over the next few years.

[00:20:31] Crystal Fincher: Completely agree. We also got news this week about some new polls - leading off with a new poll about the governor's race. What did this show?

[00:20:42] Robert Cruickshank: So it looks like The Seattle Times wants to get more directly to the polling business - they're setting up something they call the WA Poll, which is conducted by SurveyUSA. And their poll this week showed that in the primary, Bob Ferguson has a nine-point lead over Dave Reichert. And that the other Democrat running, the aforementioned Mark Mullet, was badly trailing - mired in the single digits. Semi Bird, who is the right-wing MAGA Republican running for governor is doing a little bit better than Mullet, but not a whole lot better. So this would seem to confirm the conventional wisdom that you're going to see Ferguson and Reichert go through to the November election. And if that happens, the same poll finds Ferguson has a six-point lead. None of that's surprising to me - Ferguson has had a consistent lead of around four to six points all year. There are a couple of Republican polls that are outliers that show maybe Reichert ahead, but I don't think we should consider those as serious.

What's notable to me is that the last time we had an open seat for Governor of Washington was 12 years ago - it was 2012 - and Jay Inslee was running against Rob McKenna. And I don't believe Inslee ever had leads this big over the course of 2012. In fact, there are a few reputable polls that showed either a tied race or McKenna with a narrow lead. Ferguson has a consistent lead - it's not enormous, but it's four to six points pretty consistently across the board in these polls, in the head-to-head matchup. What this shows me is that Republicans have dreams of finally taking back the governor's race - they haven't won a governor's race in Washington state since 1980. We're going on now - if Ferguson wins - 40 years of Democratic control of the governor's office. Democrats have not controlled the State Legislature consistently during those years. But with Trump topping the Republican ticket and Ferguson having done a great job taking on Trump - and I think an even better job standing up for Washingtonians against corporate power - it's going to take a miracle for Reichert to win this. Ferguson is running a strong campaign. The Stranger did call him out a little bit for maybe not being as specific as they would have wanted in some of the answers. Ferguson did not interview with The Urbanist for their endorsement, which I found a little surprising - and disappointing, to be honest. I think he should have sat down with them. But we are headed towards a Ferguson-Reichert general election in the fall, in which Ferguson is the one you would expect to win. And so I think for those of us who do issue advocacy here in Washington, now is the time to try to push Ferguson in directions you want to push him to go - because once he's in office, he's going to make his decisions.

[00:23:12] Crystal Fincher: Absolutely. Now, last month, the Cook Political Report changed its rating of this governor's race from a likely Democrat to a lean Democrat - basically saying that in their view, the race has tightened. Do you agree with that assessment?

[00:23:28] Robert Cruickshank: Not really. I don't see any evidence of this race is tightening. I think it is not going to be as wide a margin of victory as Inslee had in 2020 - whenever you have open seats in Washington state for governor, it can be close. Now it's not going to be as close as it was in 2004. That was an open seat where Christine Gregoire beat Dino Rossi by 129 votes after a recount - several rounds of recounts, in fact - and a court case that dragged on into June. It's not going to be that close. And as I said earlier, 2012 was expected to be a very close election - some polls had McKenna ahead, even going into the fall. But Inslee wound up winning that by about four percentage points. So if Cook Political Report wants to inject some drama into this and think that we're a lean Dem rather than a likely Dem state, sure. But there's no polling evidence out there right now to suggest that Dave Reichert really has any strong chance of winning this election - it's Ferguson's election to lose.

[00:24:24] Crystal Fincher: There were some other interesting polls that were reported on in The Times - one regarding the impact of Trump's felony conviction on voters and the other about Biden's response to the War in Gaza and that impact on voters. What did those show?

[00:24:40] Robert Cruickshank: So the polls on asking Washington voters about their views on Gaza and how it impacts their choice for Biden - only 8% said that Biden's response to the conflict in Gaza would change who they support for President. However, there's a significant age gap - almost a quarter of people aged 18 to 34 said Biden's response to the Gaza War did change who they would support. So it suggests similar things to what we see around the country - there's polling that has shown that a small, but potentially very significant, number of voters is thinking very much about the Gaza War in how they decide who's going to be the next president. We know that in key swing states, such as Michigan, there's a large Arab-American population there - they vote, they're organized - and are very unhappy with the way Biden has approached the Gaza War. And that is considered one of the reasons why Biden is trailing in Michigan right now. The fact that Biden is not doing great with younger voters across the country, especially in swing states, would potentially be attributable to his positions on the Gaza War as well. And so what you're seeing here in Washington is not that Biden is at risk of losing Washington state - they showed that Biden still has a healthy lead here. But that a critical segment of voters is thinking a lot about this and Biden's response will shape their votes. And Benjamin Netanyahu is coming to the US next week - he's going to speak at Congress. Biden is working towards a ceasefire - now we can ask how well or how hard he's working towards it, but Netanyahu seems to be frustrating that in part because Netanyahu probably wants Trump to be President. But when you just look at it from the terms of how it affects polling in Washington and across the country, it does play a real role. We talked earlier about Congressional challenges to incumbents in the 8th and 9th Congressional districts - this is a issue that's still very much in the minds of many voters and especially younger voters. So it's going to be very important to watch how that plays out over the next few months going into the November election.

[00:26:34] Crystal Fincher: Now, it also looks like Trump's felony conviction is a vulnerability for him in the same way. What did that poll show?

[00:26:44] Robert Cruickshank: That poll shows that 7% of likely voters said that Trump's conviction changes who they support for President. Now that might sound small - but in a close election, that's a significant number as well. So we talked just now about things that may be hurting Biden or whoever the Democratic nominee may wind up being in swing states. Well, it goes the same way for Trump, that his felony conviction - he's due to be sentenced later this year on those charges - could very well play a meaningful role in moving small but meaningful numbers of votes. Remember, Trump in 2016 won Wisconsin by 40,000 votes. He won Michigan by even less. These are very, very tight elections. And all evidence shows that no matter who's atop the Democratic ticket in November, we're likely seeing a very close election as well. And so Biden and the Democrats have to worry about young voters and Gaza. Trump has to worry about voters' perceptions of his multiple felony convictions.

[00:27:40] Crystal Fincher: Absolutely. Also want to swing back to Seattle and news we got this week of the Realtor PAC spending $60,000 on Councilmember Tanya Woo's campaign.

[00:27:52] Robert Cruickshank: As we talked about earlier on the episode, Tanya Woo was put on the City Council explicitly and openly because she was the choice of corporate donors. And here those donors are - back again to put their money where their mouth was. The Realtors - the first out of the gate with $60,000 on digital ads for Tanya Woo. I think you can expect a lot more of this going into the November election. These corporate donors believe - and they're not shy about saying this - that they bought the City Council last year. And they expect that City Council to reward them - they want a return on that investment. And in fact, you're seeing the Realtors - and you will see other corporate PACs joining them - doubling down on that investment. The last thing they want to see is Woo lose and a progressive like Alexis Mercedes Rinck win. But I think that is a likely outcome. I think Alexis is running a strong campaign. And the fact that corporate donors are going to come in big for Woo - yeah, that'll help in one sense that she's got money being spent on her behalf. But it'll also reinforce the narrative that she's a corporate candidate. She lost to Tammy Morales last year, the only reason she's on the City Council right now after losing at the polls is because corporate donors wanted her on the City Council. And now the Realtors there to reinforce that narrative.

So big money cuts both ways - it was 2019 when Amazon dropped over a million dollars into the City Council races and there was a big voter backlash. I think that in a even-year election with a much larger electorate showing up than we saw last year - and a lot of those voters who will vote in 2024, but didn't last year, are voters who do not like corporate money dominating their politics in their city. This is a double-edged sword for Tanya Woo. And I think the more corporations that donate to support her campaign and run independent expenditures on her behalf, it also reinforces the narrative that she answers to the corporate donors, not to the people of this city.

[00:29:48] Crystal Fincher: I think you raise a good point. I don't recall the corporate support - and kind of the corporate deal-making - being this explicit before in Seattle politics. You had, following the election of the new councilmembers last year, the group behind that of corporate donors - literally their word - saying they were "entitled" to a voice on the Seattle City Council and who that should be. That was pretty jarring for a lot of people. And now we see a continuation of the humongous sums of money - we saw a million dollars from corporate interests put into these races last year. And this is just beginning - as you said, we expect to see a lot more. But it really is just stunning how influential they have been, and they plan to continue being in these races. And with so much at stake.

Really, this is about taxation for corporations and about fees. There's a humongous conversation going on right now - and you hear it from the candidates for this seat - about how to address the $230 million budget deficit. And really, the way that is favored - if you look at polling by most residents of Seattle, certainly by seemingly a number of members of the Council before, and even the Mayor's office, favoring the JumpStart Tax, is - are we going to rely on really draconian cuts, on moving into an era of austerity, which is what these corporate donors prefer? Or are we going to ask these large corporations, in one way or another, to pay more of their fair share. To ask people who can bear the burden of additional taxation based on excess salaries or excess earnings - whatever that is. Or are we going to ask everyday people - some of whom can least afford it - to continue to shoulder this burden? That's really what's behind this support. And although we hear about very important issues like how we're addressing homelessness, how we're keeping people safe - really this interest, this money is motivated. This basically is an investment saying we're spending this money now on this campaign so we don't have to spend it later on the residents of the city of Seattle - that we're benefiting from, that we're profiting from. So it's really going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

[00:32:22] Robert Cruickshank: I think that's right. And it's worth keeping in mind that the corporate spending is itself unpopular and so is their agenda. The effort to repeal the minimum wage for gig workers has stalled out - and Northwest Progressive Institute's polling from the spring showed that large majorities of Seattle voters did not want that. The JumpStart Tax is popular. Austerity is unpopular. They've signaled on the City Council they want to go after renter protection. Those renter protections are also popular. So this is a City Council that won narrow victories - Keep in mind, most of these victories are fairly narrow - in 2023 on a public safety message. Well, here in mid-2024, stats - not just across the country, but here in Seattle - show crime is dropping. Dropping rapidly. The murder rate is down. Property crime is down. Violent crime is down. The number of homeless encampments is down. Now, that's not always for good reasons. The Harrell administration has been pretty effective at sweeps - whatever you think of them. The point I'm making here is that the isses that gave them narrow victories last year are potentially - I want to use that word - potentially less salient this year. And there are new issues that are more salient, especially the questions of taxes and spending. We are headed into the City budget cycle - the Mayor will propose his budget in September, it'll be discussed in October in the heart of this campaign for the City Council. Those corporate donors may expect a rerun of the 2023 elections - it's all about public safety. I don't think that's how it'll play out. Public safety and homelessness will still be part of the conversation, but I don't think it will dominate the conversation the way it did. And it's going to be fought on ground that is not very favorable to these corporate donors - they and Sara Nelson and Tanya Woo and their allies on the City Council have consistently misread their mandate. They genuinely believe that their victory last year was a sign that Seattle voters wanted to end progressive policy - that's not the case - they've learned that the hard way. And they may learn it again the hard way in November.

[00:34:22] Crystal Fincher: Absolutely. Do want to note that as ballots are on their way to people listening to this and every resident here in Washington, they're also going to include - for the first time since we've gotten mailed ballots - "I Voted" stickers, physical "I Voted" stickers. They've released digital versions. There are now going to be your own stickers coming in those ballot envelopes. I know that sparks a little bit of joy with me. I don't know about you, Robert.

I also want to talk about a new campaign tactic that we are perhaps seeing - from the Woo campaign enlisting a little bit of robotic help. What may be happening here?

[00:35:05] Robert Cruickshank: So Alycia Ramirez, who's an advocate doing great work taking on We Heart Seattle, taking on a lot of these right-wing folks, pointed out on social media this week that it appears there are bots - maybe AI-influenced or AI-controlled - bots on Reddit, which is a popular website, if you don't know it already, talking up Tanya Woo's campaign. And it turns out that this was discovered by some people seeing suspicious engagement that seemed a little - little robotic. And they asked it questions about other topics. And the way an AI chatbot will work - if you've ever had to interact with them on a - go to a company's website for help and they get an AI chatbot. You're supposed to ask it questions and it gives you canned responses. They asked it questions on other topics and it gave weird responses that very much seemed like these were AI bots. It's not unusual over the years for campaigns to pay for what's sometimes called Astroturf, which is where you pay someone, usually a human, to go into comments or go on social media and post favorable things about someone or attack someone else. What you're potentially seeing here is someone - we don't know who - appears to be taking it the next step of having AI try to go into websites and into the comment section on places like Reddit and talk up a candidate. It's not a surprising development, but it's something to watch very closely. Who's funding it? Who's making this happen? We don't know. But if that's Tanya Woo and or her backers' plan to win the election - to have a bunch of AI chatbots flood the internet for Tanya Woo or against her opponent - it's not going to speak very well of their ability to demonstrate genuine grassroots support in this city.

[00:36:42] Crystal Fincher: Yeah, I was really bummed to see this tactic manifest locally - certainly something we see nationally in some statewide and Congressional races across the country. But we haven't seen it here, or at least haven't been aware of seeing it here locally before. Unfortunately, our environment is kind of primed for this, and it's really sad. So many people are getting their information online, via social media, there's an absence of local newspapers - so many have shut down, reporting has lessened. The existing political reporters are completely overworked and can't get to the majority of stories and kind of objective fact-finding coverage out there. And so it leaves an opening where people are on these social media sites to Astroturf this, to have these bots that can sound like people, that can respond to people, that have been trained on talking points and campaign literature and spout the campaign line. It really doesn't speak well of a campaign that feels the need to do this, whether it's the campaign directly or - what is probably more likely - supporting organization or entity. But wow, to see that at work and to see it uncovered was certainly pretty dramatic. And I hope this is something that we don't see more, although I don't think this is a good sign.

[00:38:06] Robert Cruickshank: Yeah, I agree. It's not a good sign. And I think that as AI technology develops, this sort of thing will merely continue. And we're going to have to figure out how do we regulate this from a tech perspective, but also how do we regulate this from the perspective of campaign finance and campaign regulation?

[00:38:22] Crystal Fincher: Well, we will certainly continue to follow that race and races across the state in future shows. Do want to mention news this week of an ADU construction boom. What's happening?

[00:38:36] Robert Cruickshank: So the ADU, an Accessory Dwelling Unit - it can be a mother-in-law unit in your basement, or more frequently as we're seeing, a backyard cottage or two backyard cottages. I live in Northeast Seattle between Northgate and Lake City, and I go walk around the neighborhood and I'm seeing these pop up everywhere in people's backyards - people adding one, two, sometimes even three extra dwelling units. And I think it's great. What KUOW reported on this week is that we're seeing a huge boom in the construction of these Accessory Dwelling Units. The city in 2019 made it easier to build ADUs. Prior to 2019, there were maybe 200, 300 of these permitted each year. We're now seeing 1,000 were permitted in 2023, and more on the way here in 2024. And these are happening in single-family neighborhoods - this is one of the few ways you can get density right now under City's zoning code in the sprawling single-family neighborhoods of Seattle. And I think it's a really good tool to have to help provide the missing middle housing - this is housing that you can build, you can sell it, you can rent it. I know people who will build a backyard cottage so that their grandparents or parents as they age can move in. Sometimes people will build a backyard cottage and move in themselves to the smaller cottage - and maybe one of their children and their family moves into the older, bigger home. But it's one of those things that gives people choices and gives people options. And as we try to tackle the climate crisis, as we try to tackle the housing affordability crisis - we realize that doing things like building a lot of Accessory Dwelling Units in single-family neighborhoods in Seattle is one of the key tools we can have, along with building more townhomes, along with building more apartment buildings and condos, and even residential towers in parts of the city to house people here. I was just in Baltimore last week and it was almost 100 degrees with 80% humidity. And I think to myself, as the climate gets hotter across the country, places like Seattle and the Northwest will become destinations. People want to move here because we have opportunity. We have our rights. As red states take away more and more people's rights, the blue states like Washington become more attractive. And we become more attractive because of our favorable climate. We can make it easier for people to move here. We need to make it easier for people who live here to afford to stay here. And these ADUs that are now booming across the city are one of the pieces of how we do that. So I thought this was great news to see and to highlight.

[00:41:01] Crystal Fincher: Absolutely. And with that, we thank you for listening to Hacks & Wonks on this Friday, July 19th, 2024. The producer of Hacks & Wonks is Shannon Cheng. Our insightful co-host today was Sierra Club Seattle board member, longtime communications and political strategist, Robert Cruickshank. You can find Robert on Twitter at @cruickshank. You can follow Hacks & Wonks on Twitter and most platforms at @HacksWonks, as well as me on most platforms at @finchfrii. You can catch Hacks & Wonks on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, or wherever you get your podcasts - just type "Hacks and Wonks" into the search bar. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast to get the full versions of our Friday week-in-review shows and our Tuesday topical show delivered to your podcast feed. If you like us, leave a review wherever you listen - it helps out a lot. You can also get a full transcript of this episode and links to the resources referenced in the show at officialhacksandwonks.com and in the podcast episode notes.

Thanks for tuning in - talk to you next time.